AirBlue ED202 -- mishap or ... murder??

an opinion exclusive
Thu, 29 Jul 2010
by:  Tom Kovach

"That's just too coincidental to be a coincidence." -- Mike Parrillo, retired aerospace engineer

The catchy quote above popped up in a conversation a year or two ago, and has stuck with me ever since.  I've often thought about using it in a column, but this is the first time that I've actually done so.  The facts of yesterday's crash of Airblue Flight ED202, on the outskirts of Islamabad, Pakistan, is a fitting example of the quote.

On the surface, the airliner crashed while on final approach to Islamabad after a two-hour flight from Karachi, killing 152 people aboard.  The crash site was in the steep, wooded terrain of a national park.  Near the crash site is Faisal Mosque, one of Islamabad's most prominent landmarks.  The site is also not far from the Daman-e-Koh resort.

But, is there more beneath the surface?

Pakistani military and government officials were quick to say that they do not believe that it was an act of terrorism.  Of course, that is also what American government officials said about a Muslim that drove his car into a crowd of people on a sidewalk at a North Carolina college, another Muslim that drove his car into a crowd of people at a Minnesota shopping mall, and the downing of TWA Flight 800.

That is far from the only reason for concern, nor are these the only parallels to suspicious incidents.

The crash of AirBlue ED202 bears some remarkable similarities to the 1996 crash of a US Air Force T-43 (a modified Boeing 737) that was transporting then-Commerce Secretary Ron Brown and his entourage.  All were killed in the Ron Brown crash -- which also occurred in steep, wooded terrain, in rain, on final approach to an airport in an area that is marked by ethnic combat.  But, the parallels do not stop there.

Both the USAF T-43 of Ron Brown and the Airbus A-321 of AirBlue ED202 were flying non-precision instrument approaches.  Such an approach provides lateral course heading information, but not vertical glide slope information, to the inbound pilot.  In the case of the Ron Brown crash, it was a dual-NDB approach -- which is not familiar to most American pilots, but is still in use in other parts of the world.  In the case of Airblue ED202, the approach was apparently a back-ILS approach -- which is less complex that a dual-NDB approach, but which requires the pilot to trust his instruments completely in the limited visibility of heavy rain.  There had recently been monsoon rains in Pakistan.

Both types of non-precision approaches make an aircraft susceptible to a nefarious technique called "meaconing" -- a compound word that describes mimicking a radio beacon for an inbound aircraft.  Meaconing is used to divert the target aircraft away from the real beacon, and thus toward some other destination -- usually to a crash.

Jack Cashill, one of the best investigative writers on the planet, has written extensively about the suspicious circumstances of the Ron Brown plane crash.  (Jack's book on the topic, Ron Brown's Body, sold out its first edition.)  Among those suspicious circumstances is a Pakistani political connection.

With all of this as background, let's examine the AirBlue ED202 crash in light of four factors:  timing, location, technology, and patsies.  (One of the things missing from the Ron Brown crash -- something that might have prevented Jack Cashill from amassing so many facts that all point to the same conclusion -- was a credible patsy.)  Admittedly, not all of the facts are in from yesterday's crash.  But, there are enough suspicious things about the event that it "bears considerable watching".

Several weeks ago, I wrote that the 28th of July would be the date of a key event in Middle East history.  Specifically, that it would be the day that the War of Gog and Magog would be sparked.  The spark for America's involvement in World War Two occurred on Sun, 07 Dec 1941, when Japan attacked the US naval base at Pearl Harbor.  We did not join into war against Japan that day (except, of course for the localized fighting to defend Hawaii).  Nonetheless, that date is considered the start of WW-2 for the United States.  In like manner, I believe that the crash of Airblue ED202 will eventually be seen as the spark for a Middle East war that was predicted thousands of years ago in the Holy Bible.  (It is no mere coincidence that the next aid flotilla to Gaza is planned to start at this same time.)

Do I believe that the mere date of this crash makes it suspicious?  Yes, but...

That question leads us to location.  The airliner crashed near the large Faisal Mosque, which is considered a major landmark of the Islamabad area.  Here in the United States, there has recently been much public outcry about a plan to build a mosque very near Ground Zero -- the site of the "9-11" attacks that destroyed the World Trade Center.  If an airliner were to crash into a mosque in the Middle East, shortly after anti-mosque protests in the United States, then wouldn't that raise the religion-fueled rage of Muslims worldwide against the United States?

Typical ILS approach pattern map

Now, let's look at technology.  Have you ever flown cross-country on an airliner?  If yes, then have you ever experienced a time when it felt that the pilot began to turn the aircraft in one direction, but then suddenly turned it very smoothly in a different direction?  That is what sometimes happens when the autopilot is engaged.  Now, what if the aircraft's instruments are seeking vertical information instead of lateral information?  That "just happens" to be exactly what the onboard Instrument Landing System (ILS) would be doing during the type of approach that AirBlue ED202 was making toward Islamabad.  An experienced pilot on an Pakistani comment thread wrote that the weather and approach direction used by AirBlue ED202 necessitated a "back-ILS" approach.  In such an approach, the normal ILS system is used.  But, the approach is made from the opposite direction that the on-ground ILS antennas are pointed.  Thus, the aircraft's instruments can read lateral input from the beacon, but have no vertical input, because the glide-slope beacon is at the opposite end of the runway and is pointed away from the aircraft.  But, the ILS would still seek the glide-slope beacon's signal.

Enter meaconing.

Someone that had ruthlessly planned for an airliner to crash into a mosque to spark a major war would've done his homework, and would thus know to wait for a day when the flight schedule and weather patterns made a back-ILS approach necessary.  Someone that believed that they were "doing the will of Allah" (which, of course, is to kill all Jews and Christians) would actually view it as a good thing to crash an airliner full of innocent civilians into a mosque full of innocent fellow Muslims.  Someone planning such an event, who then saw the weather line up just right, on the anniversary of the birth of Sultan Abd al-Hamid, would certainly view it as "the will of Allah" to go forward with the attack.

Typical ILS approach data

Eyewitnesses on the ground observed AirBlue ED202 on approach.  They stated that the aircraft suddenly veered upward about 400 feet, and then continued downward.  That is the sort of maneuver that could be expected if the airliner had been on a back-ILS approach, and then suddenly encountered a full-ILS signal where none had been before.  If the aircraft was on autopilot (as it would most-likely have been if approaching in heavy rain), then that upward "hiccup" would be an indication that the ILS had "acquired" a beacon -- considered to be proper -- and would now automatically follow it.

The government of Pakistan is hoping to analyze the "black box" flight-data recorder.  That recorder should reveal whether the autopilot was engaged during the time leading up to the crash.  But, engagement of the autopilot would be considered normal under the flight conditions encountered.  And, if the airliner was meaconed, then the signal would've been on the same radio frequency as the normal ILS beacon.  Thus, the flight-data recorder might be of little help to determine whether an intentional act caused the crash.

Except that...

Pakistani officials have already commented that the airliner was somewhat off-course (laterally) at the time leading up to the crash.  That would be abnormal if the pilot was making a back-ILS approach with the autopilot engaged.  But, it would be exactly what would be observed if the airliner had been intentionally meaconed to its doom.  And, if the airliner was meaconed into crashing, then the close proximity of the crash to the Faisal Mosque must now be presumed to also have been intentional.  What better way for a Muslim mastermind to spark a war than to crash an airliner into a group of fellow Muslims at a mosque.

The fact that it did not actually crash into the mosque might be attributed to the fact that the pilot, upon descending below the cloud ceiling, realized what was happening and quickly dis-engaged the autopilot -- too late to avoid crashing, but in time to avoid hitting the mosque.  If the flight-data recorder shows that the autopilot was disengaged seconds before the crash -- and especially if that disengagement was immediately followed by a sudden lateral input from the pilot -- then that would be prima facie evidence that the scenario presented herein is correct.  (If the pilot wanted to avoid crashing altogether, then there would be a sudden vertical input.  But, if the pilot realized that crashing was inevitable, and was trying to specifically avoid the mosque, then there would be a sudden lateral input.  Any changes to the power settings during those final few seconds would also be key to helping analysts "read the pilot's mind".  If he pushed to increase power, then he was trying to climb.  But, if he pulled to decrease power, then he was trying to minimize the impact to the mosque.)

Enter the patsies.

News reports are that there were two Americans aboard the ill-fated airliner.  (And, some reports indicate that the two were a married couple from Alabama.  The husband was from Pakistan, and was reportedly on his way to complete paperwork that would enable him to become an American citizen.)  If the airliner were meaconed off-course, and thus caused to hit a famous mosque, then the crash could've been blamed upon two Americans seeking revenge for "9-11" and for the planned NYC mosque.  That would've been enough incentive for riled-up Muslims across that part of the world to demand that their armies go to war against infidel America.  All it would take to create that spark would be an unscrupulous mastermind and an equally unscrupulous small team of agents.

Iran has stated that they will assist Turkey's navy in penetrating Israeli territorial waters to escort the next Gaza aid flotilla.  The president of Iran, "Mad Mahmoud" Ahmedi-Nejad, made a speech the same day as the Pakistani crash.  He specifically stated that the United States will start a war in the Middle East "within the next three months".  Now, if he made that speech, and then a war was immediately sparked by the "American terrorists" crashing into a mosque, then it would make Mahmoud Ahmedi-Nejad seem to be a prophet of Allah.  (How convenient, because he already thinks of himself that way.)  And, if one were to be viewed simultaneously as a Muslim political leader and as a Muslim prophet, then that someone might fulfill his goal of being believed to the The Mahdi.  And, if millions of Muslims suddenly recognized the president of Iran as The Mahdi, then they would do anything that he said.  Given that his stated goal is to "wipe Israel from the map", then would not the War of Gog and Magog follow closely upon the heels of such a declaration?  And, given that line-up of global dominos, wouldn't Ahmedi-Nejad have substantial incentive to use all of the tools available to make that happen?  Iran has had aviation operations since the 1920s.  (Iran Air was one of the pioneers of aviation in the Middle East.)  Iran has had substantial experience with the use of brutal clandestine techniques.  Iran looks forward to even Islamic martyrdom to die in combat against the United States, which in 1979 it dubbed "The Great Satan".

Now, with all of these facts in mind, was the crash of AirBlue ED202 a mere mishap, or was it murder?

Pakistan plane crash: Black box found

AP, Jul 31, 2010, 02.51pm IST

ISLAMABAD: Recovery workers on Saturday found the "black box" flight data recorder from the wreckage of Pakistan's worst-ever plane crash, though its condition was unclear, a government official said.

The discovery could shed light on why the Airblue flight crashed Wednesday into the hills overlooking the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, killing all 152 people onboard.

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For the complete report, click The Times of India.